The Belfield Brief
April 6, 2026 Issue #1

The Week in Business, Markets & AI — April 6, 2026

Tariffs back in the headlines on Liberation Day's anniversary, a market selloff, S&P 500 valuation warnings, the GPT-5.4 / Gemini 3.1 / Claude Sonnet 4.6 model race, $267B in Q1 AI funding, and what it all means for your business.

Berkadia Research
Berkadia ↗
April 3, 2026 Macro · Labor Markets

March Payrolls Delivers Upside Surprise, Fed's Holding Pattern Continues

March nonfarm payrolls rebounded sharply to 178,000, beating all estimates. Fed Chair Powell signaled that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored — but escalating energy disruptions tied to the conflict in Iran keep the inflationary backdrop fragile.

Berkadia ↗
March 23, 2026 Macro · Fed Policy

March FOMC Meeting Recap – Oil Shock Ushers in Fed Pause

The FOMC held rates steady as rising energy prices tied to the Iran conflict re-elevated inflation risks. Updated projections showed higher near-term inflation expectations, with further easing now explicitly contingent on renewed disinflation progress.